Modelling of reservoir water release decision using neural network and temporal pattern of reservoir water level

摘要

The reservoir is one of flood mitigation methods that aim to reduce the effect of flood at downstream flood prone areas. At the same time the reservoir also serves other\udpurposes. Through modelling, how the reservoir operator made decisions in the past can be revealed. Consequently, the information can be used to guide reservoir operator making present decision especially during emergency situations such as flood and drought. This paper discussed modelling of reservoir water release decision using Neural Network (NN)and the temporal pattern of reservoir water level. Temporal pattern is used to represent the time delay as the rainfall upstream may not directly raise the reservoir water level. The flow of water may take some time to reach the reservoir due to the location. Seven NN models have been developed and tested. The findings show that the NN model with 5-25-1 architecture demonstrate the best performance compare to the other models.